Chapter 564: Long Night in the Palace and Encountering Bayes’ Theorem
Tax control machines are sold under the leadership of special administrators. Although objectively, the company’s image is definitely not pleasing to the enterprise. .
But in any case, this is an effective corporate relationship building.
As long as the follow-up services keep up, the thoughtfulness makes others feel less resentful, the products are great, and with the tax control machine paving the way, they can continue to sell financial machines.
For enterprises, all enterprises do not like this kind of behavior that is similar to forced buying and selling. However, under the national policy, when everyone is subjected to this kind of behavior, everyone will naturally accept it. .
Otherwise, it would have been impossible for the previous tax control disks to be sold for so many years. Every year, the company still calls to ask when the service fee will be paid, for fear of expiring.
As for the product, everyone took a look and found that the configuration was very similar to the previous Yanhuang Guochao series, except that the graphics card was an integrated graphics card, and the appearance was not that flashy. The product design language was completely in the style of a business machine.
The sales of industrial machines are not in the traditional market and will not attract people's attention at all.
But this market, although cold, is not small.
After all, there are tens of millions of companies in China, of which 13 million are value-added tax companies. This is a huge market.
And with the continuous development of the economy and the deepening of the tax game between the central and local governments, more and more industries will be included in the scope of value-added tax. The number of enterprises that need to use tax control machines will also grow rapidly, and the entire market will still be Expanding rapidly.
However, although the market prospects are good, some people still raised questions, "Chairman, we used to do TOC.
ToB sales require the professionalism and long-term skills of sales staff. and in-depth communication with customers. It faces the overall needs of the other team and emphasizes the long-term value and scalability of the product or service.
To be honest, we cannot meet this professional requirement. . ”
Everyone also realized that they were indeed sales veterans in the computer industry, but they had been in the toc business before, and their professionalism was not up to the rapid response model of tob.
These are completely different requirements from two different dimensions.
To sell computers, you must understand computers, otherwise you won’t be able to sell them.
For sales to individual users, they need to understand some basic knowledge of computer hardware, software and related accessories. In the process of selling computer products, they need to introduce the advantages, functions and features of the products to customers. Function, understand the hardware and software knowledge of the product, and be able to better recommend suitable products to customers and meet customer needs.
But in-depth technical knowledge is not required to respond to customers' immediate maintenance needs.
In other computer dealers, TOB is a specialized department with the cooperation of a team of hardware engineers. However, the Yanhuang branch does not have a dedicated team at this time.
Qing Yun shruggedShoulder, "Everyone, the future sales staff of Yanhuang Group must have TOB business capabilities. This is the future development trend of the company."
This is not a requirement for one post to be versatile.
It is an essential quality for future Yanhuang sales personnel.
Qing Yun does not plan to establish a customer service department. In his opinion, talking about customer service without sales is very one-sided.
Currently, many companies have problems with their customer service positioning, and there is a disconnect between sales and customer service.
Although many companies have set up customer service departments, they have simply changed the name of the former after-sales department, without substantial improvements.
After completing a sale, many sales staff leave all the after-sales work to customer service.
In fact, from the customer's perspective, when there is an after-sales problem, he still likes to contact the salesperson and hopes that the salesperson will help him solve the problem.
As for the sales staff, their most common approach is to tell customers the after-sales contact information of the customer service, and let the customers contact them themselves. During the subsequent service processing, they do not take the initiative to care whether the specific customer is being served. Satisfied, this actually goes against the principle of maintaining customer relationships.
“The transaction is not the end of the sales activity. The transaction does not mean the end of the sales activity, but only the beginning of the relationship marketing process.
In Yanhuang Group, I ask the sales staff not to just focus on sales. , you are also the first person responsible for customer service. Of course, I will also configure a dedicated team of hardware engineers later.
But you can’t reach school. Anyway, at the beginning, because of the sales of tax control machines. You have enough time to make the transition.
Everyone, I know that this is a painful transition for you. It is indeed unpleasant to have to study again after so many years after graduation. , this is also a great test for you. You should know clearly whether it is a one-time deal or a long-term success.”
After hearing this, the employees who were feeling a little uncomfortable could only nod helplessly.
In fact, they all understand the truth, but it is really too tiring to do this.
It can only be said that this money is not easy to earn, but wealth can only be found in danger.
Think about it, and your mentality will be corrected.
After all, Xiaoqing always gives generously.
Industry machine information, speaking skills training, etc. are not what Qing Yun, the chairman, should worry about.
After saying that, he took Guo Jing and left, leaving the rest to Liu Shiheng and the headquarters marketing department, as well as talking to the three old gangsters next door.
However, Emperor Yun's flash skill was interrupted as soon as he stepped out, and he stopped abruptly.
Qin Manman, who was eavesdropping with Zhang Li but had not had time to withdraw, bumped into him.
Astonished, Qin Manman didn't notice the flash of panic in Qing Yun's eyes.
Seeing Qin Manman and Zhang Li at the door, Emperor Yun's mind went blank.
This is a forced confessionIt’s done, now I’m ready to take care of myself
Mainly because before coming to Yanjing, Qin Manman had sounded the alarm to him, saying that he had already played mahjong.
It’s such a slap in the face to bring one back in the blink of an eye.
But I was smart enough to create a Bagua formation within a set, preparing to get through.
Now that the situation has been broken by Qin Manman's unreasonable high-profile attitude, it is like Zhuge Liang's Eight Formation Diagram being directly penetrated by Lu Bu. Where is the reasoning?
On the contrary, Zhang Li secretly gave Qing Yun a K while they were separated.
Qing Yun was stunned for a moment.
For the first time, he didn’t understand the meaning of Zhang Li’s k.
But there was no time for him to think about it. He lifted up Qin Manman in his arms with both hands and looked at her with confusion.
After Qin Manman stood firm, he gave him a half-hearted smile.
She felt that everything Zhang Li said was reasonable, and all the situations before her were also very reasonable.
She couldn't find any loopholes.
But
Why did this bad guy show signs of guilty conscience before?
Did she see it wrong?
Qin Manman feels a little uncomfortable now. OK.
She made the judgment based on her summary of Qing Yun's past actions and behavior. She can only say that it is correct with a high probability, but she cannot guarantee that it will be correct every time.
Is that guilty look in the conference room really a coincidence?
There must be too many coincidences in the past two days
Everything is weird, but the interlocking logic makes it self-consistent and reasonable.
Although it is very reasonable and scientific.
However, when discussing algorithms with Su Caiwei recently, the two women noticed an interesting formula at the same time.
The pearl has been covered in dust for 200 years, but once it broke out, it was the Bayesian formula that dominated the world.
When the theory of real variable functions introduced probability theory, the axiomatic basis of probability theory was formally established, and the classification was nothing more than classical probability and geometric probability.
But after the emergence of Bayesian formula, probability is divided into traditional probability and Bayesian probability.
Why is it classified in this way?
Because probability is originally objective, but Bayesian, a guy, makes objective probability subjective.
Bayesian probability is a statistical method that calculates posterior probability through prior probability and observed data.
What is prior probability
Prior probability refers to the initial estimate of the probability of an event occurring before the data is observed.
This initial estimate is obtained based on past experience or domain knowledge, and then based on this subjective estimate, the prior probability is corrected based on the observed data to obtain the posterior probability of the event.
This was very shocking to the scientific community at the time. Everyone agreed that this was nonsense.
So, no wonder the 18th centuryNo one cared about the formula proposed by Ji at the time. It was not until a special event 200 years later that Bayes' formula was recognized.
In May 1968, America's Scorpio nuclear submarine was suddenly sunk by a torpedo and a boomerang launched by itself in the Sea of Azov in the Atlantic Ocean. Don't look at me, the truth is so outrageous, submarines and boats All 99 naval officers and soldiers on board have not been heard from.
Because the speed of the submarine at the time of the accident, the direction of travel, the magnitude of the impact of the explosion, and the direction of the submarine's rudder at the time of the explosion are all unknown quantities. Even if you know where the submarine exploded, it is difficult to determine the final location of the submarine wreckage. Wherever it was washed away by the sea.
When the search and rescue was first started, people made deductions based on various hypotheses and theories, and spent several months searching to no avail.
If it was an ordinary submarine, forget it, but it happened to be a nuclear submarine, and the area where it sank was in front of Xiong Da’s father’s house.
In order to find the location of the Scorpion, America secretly mobilized a search force including many experts from home to go to the scene, including a mathematician named John Craven, whose title was "Special Projects" Chief Scientist of the Department”.
Faced with a clueless search, this mathematician with the same name as a movie star pulled Bayes’ formula out of the old paper and used it as a doctor.
There is no way, if we don’t solve it, Xiong Da’s father will go crazy.
Craven convened experts from various fields such as mathematicians, submarine experts, and maritime search and rescue. He did not follow the usual thinking and asked team members to negotiate with each other to find a consensus.
Instead, experts were asked to write various possible scripts, allowing them to guess in which direction the situation would develop based on their own knowledge and experience, and evaluate the possibility of each scenario.
Finally, craven combined the opinions of experts and obtained a probability map of the 20-mile sea area.
The entire sea area is divided into many small grids, each small grid has two probability values and q,
It is the probability of the submarine lying in this grid.
q is the probability that the submarine is found if it is in this grid.
According to experience, the q probability value is mainly related to the water depth of the sea area. Searching for a wrecked submarine in the deep sea area is more likely to "miss the net".
If a grid is searched and no trace of a submarine is found, then according to Bayesian formula, the probability of the existence of a submarine in this grid will be reduced.
Every time you search, first select a grid with the highest probability of submarine existence in the entire area to search. If no submarine is found, the probability distribution map will be "shuffled" and the search ship will sail to a new location. Search the most suspicious grid, and continue like this until you find the Scorpion.
When the search first began, Navy personnel scoffed at Craven and his team's suggestion that the submarine was exploding.The seabed on the east side of the point.
But after several months of searching, they found nothing, so they had to follow Craven's suggestion and search on the west side of the explosion point according to the probability map.
After several searches, the submarine was found on the seabed southwest of the explosion point.
This method based on the Bayesian formula was successfully applied in many subsequent search and rescue practices, and has now become a common practice in search and rescue of maritime and air disasters.
The reason why Qin Manman and Su Caiwei paid attention to this Bayesian formula that no one paid attention to during their lifetime and is extremely valuable after death is because they discovered that they need to algorithmically implement how to take photos in a dark environment. When photographing black people, Bayesian formula works wonders.
So, at this moment, Qin Manman couldn't help but think according to this model.
According to traditional probability, there is no solution.
But when Qin Manman substituted the initial estimated prior probability that the smelly brother might lie, and then revised it based on objective events, then all her doubts were solved. What she got was that the smelly brother was lying. the posterior probability of .
But Qin Manman is still not sure, because the Bayesian formula is a structure in the Markov category. In the general probability theory, the Bayesian formula may not be true, because the general probability theory It is allowed that the sum of probabilities is not equal to 1, that is, non-standard probability distribution may occur.
In other words, there is a possibility that it may not be established.
So, Qin Manman decided to cheat
Destroy ten meetings at once
After making a smile, Qin Manman closed the door and stood coldly. Face asked, "Everything is settled."
Yun Emperor nodded quickly.
Qin Manman snorted coldly, gave him a look that made him understand, then turned around and took Zhang Li's arm and walked towards the meeting room.
She found that Zhang Li's presence at this moment was very useful.
With Zhang Li in her hands, she can continue to observe and verify it calmly.
If Qing Yun lied, he would definitely have something in his heart and expose more flaws.
Although it may not change the fact that Zhang Li entered the game, it can definitely kill two birds with one stone, defeating the stinky brother with a cat-like heart, and Zhang Li, the little bitch who dared to deceive her
If Qing Yun didn't lie.
This means that she will definitely be punished by her stinky brother tonight.
Then with Zhang Li aside, this bad guy will not mess around.
At worst, she said that she and Zhang Li hit it off right away, so they would talk all night long and wait for Master Qianying to bear his anger.
Zhang Li, who was held by Qin Manman's arm with a smile, followed her forward docilely, like a pair of good best friends, not daring to look back at the bad man's face.
Yun Di, who was standing on the spot, was suddenly stunned, and even his heart skipped a few beats.
Holy shit
Qing Yun, who was standing still, wasn’t because of Qin Manman’s smiling face.Stunned.
It’s because Qin Manman and Zhang Li look like best friends.
He knew very well that this was Qin Manman's way of manipulating and beating him.
What puzzled him was that Qin Manman didn't ask Zhang Li the truth.
Yes, he was very sure that Zhang Li successfully deceived Qin Manman.
It wasn’t Zhang Li who reminded him just now.
It’s Qin Manman’s behavior pattern at the moment.
After two lifetimes, Emperor Yun understood her character better than Qin Manman.
Is Qin Manman polite?
Very polite. He will take the initiative to say hello and thank anyone he sees. He does not have the arrogance that a little princess should have.
Is Qin Manman friendly?
Very friendly. In her previous life, she could squat down and use a clean handkerchief to gently wipe away the mud on the face of a child in his village.
At first glance, she looks like a well-educated young lady.
However, this politeness and kindness come from a higher-dimensional position.
Just like the chairman is always kind and approachable to the grassroots employees, and just like the big professor will not argue with Xiao Huangmao.
The argument is that what you said is right, very reasonable and insightful, but I have limited knowledge and am ashamed to say that I cannot match it.
Hidden beneath that well-educated politeness and friendliness is Qin Manman's natural pride.
That is something engraved in her bones.
Her opponent must be of the same style as her before she can regard her as her opponent and then defeat her with all her strength.
For this reason, she could even do something like asking him to rescue Tang Qianying during the graduation season.
Therefore, there are limits to her politeness and kindness.
Polite alienation, friendly alienation.
In the same dimension, she is polite and polite
Her bad character will always suppress you. In the words of the next ten years, it will be an elegant Versailles.
Just like the two people in the previous life, she was strong and he was weak, so she, who hoped that her husband would become a successful man, always suppressed him.
Of course, this comes more from her inner reluctance.
In this life, Tang Qianying was forced to understand Qin Manman.
Because Qin Manman disrupted her original plan by taking action in advance without following the routine, and also because he was too strong in this life.
So in front of Qin Manman, the young Master Qianying was very well-behaved, unlike her in her previous life when she was a young and mature woman who dared to stand upright.
At this time, the situation before Emperor Yun was clear.
Proof by contradiction.
Assuming that Qin Manman has interrogated the relationship between the two and Zhang Li has told the truth, then Qin Manman will regard Zhang Li as a person of the same dimension. How could she behave like Zhang Li? She is like a best friend
According to her character, she will definitely set the rules for a lady in front of Zhang Li just like she suppressed Tang Qianying before.
Still holding arms
It is impossible to walk side by side.
So, the proposition is not valid.
So, another fact emerged.
Zhang Li actually deceived Qin Manman
This discovery shocked Emperor Yun.
As expected, none of his women are simple masters.
Needless to say, Qin Manman.
Chen Yue is completely limited by her own conditions. After all, in her previous life, this girl was the master who almost got into the center.
Su Caiwei, there is no one who doesn’t care about mathematics.
As for Master Qianying
Hmph
In his previous life, he was the person who faced Qin Manman, and Qin Manman didn’t take any precautions against him. Tang Qianying plays the trick of running away with the ball, and then prepares to bring the baby back to the king.
He originally thought that the easiest one was Zhang Li
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