Inside the Jingshe, Jiajing finally waited for Song Yingchang's reply.
Originally, the next day was the Sutra Banquet, and recently we were talking about various events in the Northern Song Dynasty. Song Yingchang also applied tables, line charts, column charts, etc. and was very busy.
Just when he was in a hurry and his butt was burning, Jiajing actually intervened and asked him to go to the storytelling meeting.
No way, who made Jiajing the emperor?
Although Song Yingchang, who was prone to procrastination, had not yet completely finalized the lecture notes for the Sutra Banquet, he hurriedly went to the storytelling session with Jiajing.
In other words, Story Club is the latest content launched by Teacher Gao, and has been published for two issues.
The first issue contains ten joke stories based on pure logic, and the second issue continues with ten logic stories, but also includes ten other social stories.
Song Yingchang took out all three books, and the notes inside were densely packed.
Because Song Yingchang had a handwritten draft given by Teacher Gao, which was convenient for him to study immediately.
Although only two issues have been released on the market, Song Yingchang already has the manuscripts of three issues in his hands.
This is the advantage of being close to the water.
"There are actually three issues, okay, which story are you most interested in?" Jiajing asked in the same way.
"Since I have become a scholar, I put more emphasis on administration rather than knowledge. Therefore, I feel that the rooster crows, the sun and the farmers make cows are the most important."
"Your Majesty, please take a look"
Song Yingchang pointed out the source of the content while speaking.
The rooster crows the sun. During the Spring and Autumn Period, the children of a large family heard the rooster crow every day before the sun rose. Therefore, they always thought that the rooster woke up the sun. Without the rooster, the sun would not rise. .
Farmers get cattle because according to Guan Zhong’s statistics, farmers with cattle are very diligent and have high grain yields. Therefore, a better way for farmers is to raise cattle generally. As long as there are cattle, farmers will work hard. This caused Guan Zhong's confusion.
With Song Yingchang’s explanation, Jiajing, who had already made some guesses, suddenly had an enlightenment.
Confusion of cause and effect, in which confusion of cause and effect and inversion of cause and effect are actually common in the reality of the Ming Dynasty and in Confucian literature. This is also the key to the failure of many reforms in history and the lack of knowledge among monarchs.
Directly exploring the logic of cause and effect is more focused, shorter, faster, and easier to produce results than learning the logic step by step from the beginning.
If there is no progress in learning a knowledge, no one will believe in it.
"How far have you studied cause and effect?" Jiajing asked after carefully appreciating the two stories.
Song Yingchang quickly unfolded the reading notes he had compiled before and showed them to Jiajing while explaining them.
Current research on causation is mainly conducted on pseudo-causation.
Pseudo causation includes four aspects: measurement error, reverse causation, selection bias and omitted variables.
For example, Wang Anshi’s reform in the Northern Song Dynasty.
How to measure Wang Anshi's reform process has never been solved. When Emperor Gaozong of the Southern Song Dynasty finally liquidated the reform, it is unknown whether he threw out all the children when pouring out the bath water.
Because measurement is the basis for evaluating cause and effect, it is impossible to evaluate without systematic measurement.
On the basis of measurement, the last three issues must be considered.
Guan Zhong’s confusion comes from the causal relationship after measurement. Sharecroppers raise cattle because they are diligent, not because they raise cattle and become diligent. The key to controlling reverse causation is intervention control, such as removing the cow to see if it is still diligent
Selection bias is also a key part of it. When the Song Dynasty fought against the Jin Kingdom, most of the wounded soldiers after the war had damaged armor but intact helmets. Therefore, the Song Dynasty only strengthened the mail armor, but did not improve the survival rate of soldiers.
The same goes for Wang Anshi’s reform. The places chosen for the reform were mainly along the Huaihe River, mostly where the old party was in power. This choice naturally creates bias in execution. In addition, the new law was finally evaluated based on the destruction of Bianjing City, but the military implications of the new law were actually very few. How can we use the military to evaluate the new law?
In the end, it is an omitted variable. For example, in the Southern Song Dynasty's reflection on Wang Anshi's reform, the old and new party struggles were ignored, and the new party's policies and the impact of the party struggle could not be distinguished. Naturally, the new law could not be evaluated normally. . Please remember to collect it, the latest and fastest website is free to read without anti-theft